ECCT Greater China Committee Event 

Challenges facing Taiwan's next president

Guest speaker
Professor Chu Yun-han, President, Chiang Ching-Kuo Foundation
蔣經國基金會 執行長朱雲漢博士

12:00 – 14:00, Tuesday, 5 May 2015
Shangrila Far Eastern Plaza Hotel, North & South Gate (B1) / 香格里拉台北遠東國際大飯店B1樓 洛北秀南廳
201 Tun Hwa South Road, Section 2, Taipei / 台北市敦化南路二段201號

Taiwan's next president, to be elected and take office in 2016, will face numerous economic, social and political challenges. Besides maintaining Taiwan's economic competitiveness and dealing with the problems associated with Taiwan's rapidly-aging society and widening income inequality, the new president will need a comprehensive and coherent cross-Strait policy. An effective policy will require a pragmatic approach to the reality of increasing cross-Strait economic integration and considerable diplomatic finesse to balance the need to protect Taiwan's hard-won freedoms and ensure its continued economic prosperity.

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has already announced its 2016 presidential candidate, Tsai Ing-wen, while the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) has yet to put forward a candidate. While KMT Chairman Eric Chu has not said he would run, the KMT is expected to continue to build relations with its counterpart, the Communist Party of China (CCP). Chu is expected to attend an historic KMT-CCP summit in May or June and meet with CCP Chairman Xi jin-ping. In contrast, Chinese authorities have in the past been, at best, lukewarm towards the DPP while the DPP has struggled to define a workable policy approach to China given the party's reluctance to accept the so-called "one China, two interpretations" basis accepted by the KMT and CCP. Should Tsai win the election, it will be a challenge to find a common basis on which to forge and develop cross-Strait relations.

The first six years of President Ma Ying-jeou's administration witnessed unprecedented progress in cross-Strait relations. Twelve rounds of official talks have been held between the officially-sanctioned Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) and the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS). Over 20 agreements have been signed covering cooperation in a number of areas, including the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). Direct links have been established. There are now over 800 weekly flights between Taiwan and China and close to five million Chinese tourists visited Taiwan in 2014. Meanwhile economic integration has continued. Taiwanese investments in mainland China are estimated at close to US$200 billion while annual trade volume tops U$100 billion and close to a million Taiwanese citizens live and work in China.

However, since 2014 progress in cross-Strait relations has slowed down. The Cross-Strait Trade in Services Agreement has yet to be ratified by the Taiwan legislature owing to opposition both by the official opposition DPP and various civic groups. Opponents have criticised both the cross-Strait negotiation process, the services agreement and other agreements with China as lacking transparency, benefiting only elite business groups and failing to protect Taiwan's interests. Other tensions between the two sides have arisen over China's unilateral declaration of a new flight path extremely close to the centre of the Taiwan Strait.

Our guest speaker will offer some insights into the complex subject of current and prospective cross-Strait economic and political relations, the multiple challenges that will face Taiwan's next president and how the president might address them.

About the speaker
Professor Chu Yun-han(朱雲漢教授) is the president of the Chiang Ching-Kuo Foundation(蔣經國基金會) for International Scholarly Exchange, a position he has held since June 2001. He concurrently holds a joint appointment as Distinguished Research Fellow at the Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica, and Professor of Political Science at National Taiwan University. He is an expert in East Asian political and economic issues and has had a long and distinguished career in academia. He was elected an Academician of Academia Sinica in July 2012. He was previously the Director of Programs at the Institute for National Policy Research, Taipei, (from 1988-1999) and Coordinator of the Political Science Section of the National Science Council (from 1994-1997). He has been on the editorial advisory boards of several journals including the "Journal of Contemporary China", "Journal of Democracy", "China Perspective", "China Review" and the "Journal of East Asian Studies". He has taught and written on a wide range of subjects including market-oriented reform in mainland China and how East Asians view democracy. Professor Chu holds an MA from National Taiwan University and a PhD from the University of Minnesota in the United States.