ECCT PREMIUM EVENT

Asia – Weathering a faltering, furious, and fractious world

Guest speaker
Charlie Lay, Senior Economist, Asia, Commerzbank
12:00 - 14:00, Tuesday, 12 November 2019
Venue: 9F Studio 1, W Taipei
Address: 10 Zhongxiao East Road Sec. 5, Taipei / 台北市信義區忠孝東路五段10號

The IMF is projecting a weakening global expansion in 2019 to 3.3% before seeing stronger growth in 2020 to 3.6%. However, the risks are tilted to the downside given the spate of weak manufacturing data, the fading impact of the US tax cuts, uncertainties on Brexit, and lingering US-China trade tensions. One glimmer of hope is policy stimulus from China but how will this move the needle given that China can’t afford the same kind of bazooka stimulus it introduced in 2008?

Risk assets are near record levels but the bond market is telling a more cautious story with global yields slipping. The amount of government bonds globally with negative yields now totals over US$10 trillion. Whose report should we believe? Will China be able to stabilise growth? The answer will have a bearing for the rest of Asia and globally. Which countries will benefit from the relocation of global supply chains out of China? For Asian central banks, there’s no longer any appetite to hike rates given the US Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot. Who will be the most aggressive to cut in Asia? This will depend on FX stability which will boil down to the direction for CNY.

These are just some of the topics our guest speaker will tackle in his presentation.

About the speaker
Charlie Lay is a senior economist covering Asia for Commerzbank since 2011, based in Singapore. He has a broad range of experience in Asian and G7 markets, having worked in various capacities in private and investment banking. He has covered Asia since 1997 in roles with Societe Generale as a regional economist and Credit Suisse Private Banking as an FX strategist. He began his career with the Australian Treasury in Canberra in macroeconomic modelling, responsible for forecasting and modelling the Australian economy. He holds a master’s degree in economics from the Australian National University.

NT$1,400 for members and NT$2,000 for members' guest(s)
*To cancel without penalty, written cancellations must be received 24 hours prior to the event.
Contact: Jill Fong / Tel: 2740-0236 ext. 222 / jill.fong@ecct.com.tw / www.ecct.com.tw