ECCT Premium Event

The new economic norm of inflation, supply chains and geopolitics

Guest speaker
Wei Yao, Head of Research, Société Générale APAC

Date & Time: Thursday, 22 August 2024, 12:00-14:00
Venue: 1F, Residence II, Grand Hyatt Taipei / 台北君悅酒店1樓君寓二
Address: 2 Songshou Road, Xinyi District, Taipei City / 台北市信義區松壽路2號

According to official figures, China’s GDP growth hit 5.3% in the first quarter of 2024, similar to levels of the past three quarters. Growth was driven by an increase in fixed asset investments of 4.5% year-on-year, boosted by a 9.9% bump in manufacturing investment, and modest export and consumption growth. However, growth was offset by a 9.5% fall in property investment. While the government’s official GDP target for the full year is 5%, growth is being stifled by the ongoing real estate slump, sluggish exports and tepid consumer spending. Boosting the economy will require overcoming a number of challenges, both global and local. Globally, China is facing constraints from the US ban on advanced technologies, pressure from the West to address their accusations of unfair trading practices, including heavy subsidies of green tech industries, such as solar and electric vehicles. Domestically, the government must overcome the challenges of the real estate slump, overreliance on investments in manufacturing and exports, an ageing population and shrinking workforce.

As an export-driven economy and with over US$200 billion of legacy investments in China, Taiwan’s economic growth still relies heavily on China, although investments in and exports to China (and Hong Kong) have gradually declined over recent years. For much of the past decade, exports to China accounted for over 40% of total exports and investments into China continued to soar. However, investments from Taiwan into China have fallen steadily since 2016 and, in the first quarter of 2024, Taiwan’s exports to China accounted for just 30.7% of total exports.

Taiwan’s economic performance in 2023 was dragged down by weak exports and fixed asset investment. However, GDP growth exceed 6% in 1Q24 on the back of strong export growth of over 10% and robust private consumption, although fixed capital investment declined. Moreover, Taiwan’s labour market remains resilient. On the back of strong consumption and the tech cycle rebound, if the trend continues, Taiwan’s overall economic growth is expected to exceed 3% in 2024.  

At this event our guest speaker will give her views on prospects for the global economy with a special focus on China and Taiwan. Among other topics, she will talk about:

• The outlook for the Chinese economy and its global implications
• The great reshuffling of trade, capital and supply chains, and its implications for Taiwan
• Geopolitics as uncertainty, risk and opportunities.
• Global economic cover
• USD interest outlook

About the guest speaker
Wei Yao joined SGCIB in April 2010 and is currently Head of Research for Société Générale in Asia-Pacific and Chief Economist for the region. She offers unique insights into the complex transition of the world's second-largest economy and, together with a team of senior analysts, provides in-depth analysis on economic and market dynamics within the region. She has been continuously ranked among the top forecasters for China by Bloomberg as well as among the top economists globally in various surveys. Prior to joining SGCIB, Wei worked on Asia economic research for Kuwait-China Investment Company, based in the Middle East. She obtained a bachelor's degree from Fudan University and holds a master’s degree in economics from Tufts University.

Cost: NT$1,800 for members and NT$2,600 for members' guest(s)

*To cancel without penalty, written cancellations must be received 24 hours before the event.

About 48 hours before the event, you will receive another email that will contain a QR code, which will enable you to register at the event using your mobile device.

Contact: Kelly Cheng Tel: 2740-0236 ext. 222 / Kelly.cheng@ecct.com.tw