ECCT Special Lunch
Assessing the Covid-19 economic impact
Will Taiwan weather the pandemic better than other countries?

Guest speaker
Dr Roy Lee, Deputy Executive Director, Taiwan WTO & RTA Centre, Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER)
中華經濟研究院WTO及RTA中心 李淳副執行長
Dr Chen Shin-hui, Assistant Research Fellow, CIER中華經濟研究院經濟展望中心助研究員 陳馨蕙博士

12:00 – 14:00, Thursday, 14 May 2020
Venue: 11F Strategy 3+4 策略會議室3+4, W Hotel Taipei
Address: 10 Zhongxiao East Road, Sec. 5, Xinyi District, Taipei

In the latest edition of its World Economic Outlook Report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its forecast for Taiwan's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth downwards by six percentage points to -4% from its previous forecast of +2%, made in October 2019. The IMF’s revised forecast for Taiwan was just one of its downgrades to forecasts for countries across the world to account for the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic. However, soon after the report came out, Taiwan’s Directorate General of Budget Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) countered that Taiwan would maintain economic growth this year despite the current crisis, citing Taiwan’s unique circumstances and effective handling of the pandemic. Then, on 17 April, the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER) cut its official forecast for Taiwan’s economic growth to 1.03%, more than halving its previous forecast made at the end of 2019. Our guest speaker will give a detailed behind-the-numbers assessment of Taiwan’s economic performance over the first quarter of 2020 and offer some insights into how various economic sectors will perform over the next few quarters.

While it is inevitable that Taiwan’s economy will feel an impact from the coronavirus, there are reasons to believe that the IMF’s forecast may be overly pessimistic. In its statement on the IMF’s downgrade, the National Development Council (NDC) commented that the IMF failed to fully obtain knowledge of the economic conditions in Taiwan, and also neglected three facts while making its adjustments regarding the country: Firstly, that Taiwan has controlled the outbreak much more efficiently than other countries. Secondly, the pandemic's impact on the nation's tourism and other relevant business sectors was significantly smaller than in some other countries in Asia. Thirdly, the government has outlined several bailout packages for the worst-hit businesses and start-ups, and moved to accelerate the implementation of public infrastructure construction projects. The question our speaker will answer, among many others, is if these measures will be effective in cushioning the blow from the global drop in economic activity, in both supply and demand.

About the speaker
Dr Roy Lee (Chun) is currently the Deputy Executive Director of the Taiwan WTO and RTA Center at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER). He is a member of both the Executive Yuan's Advisory Committee for Trade Policy and the Mainland Affairs Council's Advisory Committee. Dr Lee specializes in trade liberalisation policy, WTO, services trade, non-tariff measures (TBT and SPS) and regional integration. He is a policy advisor on Taiwan's trade negotiations with mainland China, New Zealand and Singapore and a capital-based expert on Taiwan's delegation for WTO services trade and TBT meetings and on its general liberalisation policy. He is (with Taiwan’s nomination) on the indicative list of Dispute Settlement arbitrators for the Taiwan-Singapore and Taiwan-New Zealand ECAs. In other capacities, Dr Lee is a frequent column writer on liberalisation policy for major newspapers in Taiwan. Before joining CIER in 2006, Dr Lee worked as a regulatory expert project consultant for the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC) and the ASEAN–Australia Development Cooperation Program (AADCP). Dr Lee received his PhD in Public Policy from the Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University.

Dr Chen Shin-hui joined CIER in 2012 and is a member of the Center for Economic Forecasting. Her main responsibility is to compile the Taiwan Purchasing Managers’ Index and hold a monthly press conference to announce the results. A key activity in compiling the index is to maintain relationships with more than 600 managers and collect industrial information behind the survey data through phone interviews. As a member of the CIER Economic forecasting team, she has developed forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates, inflation and incorporated relevant financial information to forecast Taiwan’s GDP. Over the past five years, she has hosted the Investigation of Commodity Price Volatility Project of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, providing policy suggestions and commodity price forecasts to the government. With a financial background and interdisciplinary communication skills, she participates in a team of regulation and energy specialists and is dedicated to providing relevant information for conducting industrial policies and strategic planning that maximize Taiwan’s green industries’ potential to contribute to economic growth.

Please note that, in line with government guidelines, attendance at this event will be limited to 50 people.
Other guidelines such as temperature checks of arriving guests and personal hygiene measures will also be taken.
In addition, in accordance with social distancing guidelines, tables will be placed far apart and seating will be limited to 5 people per table.

Cost: NT$1,400 per member; NT$2,000 for members' guests

To cancel without penalty, written cancellations must be received at least 1 working day before the event.
Contact: Fiona Lee / Tel 2740-0236 ext. 216 / Fiona.lee@ecct.com.tw / www.ecct.com.tw