ECCT Special Lunch

2022 Global Economic Outlook
Navigating a vulnerable recovery

Guest speaker: Tony Phoo, Senior Economist, Standard Chartered Bank
Date: 14 January 2022
Time: 12:00-14:00
Venue: B1 Metro Suite, Shangri-La's Far Eastern Plaza Hotel Taipei / 台北遠東香格里拉飯店 B1 大都會廳
Address: 201 Tun Hwa South Road, Section 2, Taipei / 台北市大安區敦化南路二段201號

The global economic outlook remains vulnerable into 2022. International borders will gradually reopen as economies, in line with rising vaccination rates, consider adopting policy to learning to live with Covid. This, however, will likely present differing challenges as well as opportunity for both developed and emerging market economies. Already, supply chain bottlenecks, due partly to the aftereffects of the Covid-19 pandemic and rising raw material prices, among other factors, have also resulted in rising consumer price inflation, raising fears of early tightening to both fiscal and monetary policy, which have potential implications to the global growth outlook.

Taiwan’s economy has weathered the global coronavirus pandemic relatively well. It is one of the few economies globally to post rising economic growth in both 2020 and 2021. In October 2021, the IMF forecast 5.8% GDP growth for Taiwan in 2021 and Taiwan’s DGBAS looks set to revise up its current forecast to over 6%, which would be the highest level since 2010, the year following the global financial crisis. Export figures year to date (up over 30%), strong investments and the most recent PMI reading (58.3 in October) support the forecast for at least the next six months. But now that the threat of the global pandemic is diminishing and more countries are re-opening their borders, will Taiwan’s economic outperformance continue beyond that? Will supply chain disruptions continue into the new year? Will higher inflation force central banks to raise interest rates? Will lingering trade tensions, particularly between the US and China, have a broader regional and global impact in 2022? What if there is progress on bilateral trade deals like the CPTPP? At this event, our guest speaker will present an outlook for the global, regional, and local economy and give his analysis of these and other questions.

Among other topics, he will talk about:

• The outlook for investment, trade, and consumption
• The impact of supply chain disruptions
• Forecast for inflation, fiscal and monetary policy
• Global trade tensions and potential breakthroughs

About the speaker
Tony Phoo joined Standard Chartered Bank in June 2007. He is currently a senior economist covering Taiwan and economies in Northeast Asia (NEA), along with other colleagues based in the region. Based in Taiwan, Phoo has over fifteen years of economic research experience spanning across various functions, both in Taiwan and Singapore. He was a senior economist for the Fixed Income Department with Capital Securities Corp. Limited between 2003 and 2006. Prior to that, he held similar responsibilities in economic research with the Development Bank of Singapore (DBS) and Overseas Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) while residing in Singapore. Phoo holds a master’s degree in International Economics, Banking, and Finance from University of Wales, Cardiff (UWCC), and obtained his honours degree in economics from the University of London, UK.

Cost: NT$1,400 for members and NT$2,000 for members' guest(s)

Please note that participation may be limited based on Covid-19 restrictions at the time of the event. Affected members will be informed in advance if the number of registrations exceed the maximum number allowed.

To cancel without penalty, written cancellations must be received 24 hours prior to the event.

Contact: Jill Fong / Tel: 2740-0236 ext. 222 / jill.fong@ecct.com.tw