ECCT Special Lunch

Impact of global economic trends and policies of incoming Lai administration on Taiwan’s economy

Invited guest of honour: Alicia Garcia Herrero, Chief Economist, Asia Pacific, Natixis

Date: Thursday, 1 February 2024
Time: 12:00 – 14:00
Venue: 3F, Magpie, Grand Hyatt Taipei / 台北君悅酒店3樓 鵲迎廳
Address: 3F, No.2, SongShou Road, Xinyi Dist., Taipei, Taiwan / 台北市信義區松壽路2號3樓

Lai Ching-te has won election as president of Taiwan and will take office on 20 May 2024. He will inherit an economy that seems to be coming out of a downturn and has indicated that his policy direction will be a continuation of those of his predecessor, Tsai Ying-wen.

One of the key issues after Taiwan’s elections is how it will affect the economy, as well as economic policies. A positive aspect for the incoming government comes from the economic tailwinds which are expected for 2024 with GDP growth more than doubling. This is mainly driven by a much more positive cycle for the electronics and semiconductor sectors but also because fixed asset investment is expected to grow faster once the uncertainty surrounding the elections has been cleared.  At the same time, some of the economic policies framed under the DPP’s administration for the last eight years will need to be reshaped given the need for the DPP to seek consensus.  This possibly includes the ongoing diversification of Taiwan’s trade and investment away from Mainland China and towards the rest of Asia and the US. This has consequences for the European Union, which has not benefitted as much from Taiwan’s diversification. Beyond the geopolitical reasons that may lead Taiwanese companies to prefer to invest in the US or Japan, the EU should be able to attract more foreign direct investment from Taiwan too. The possibility of a trade/investment agreement supporting this is highly unlikely since not even the US, Taiwan or Australia seem to be ready to accommodate Taiwan in their bilateral or regional trade deals.  Against such backdrop, it seems important to explore other venues for European businesses to profit from the opportunity of a faster growing Taiwanese economy and potentially also from its diversification drive.

About the speaker
Alicia Garcia Herrero is the Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at French investment bank Natixis, based in Hong Kong and an independent Board Member of the AGEAS insurance group. She also serves as Senior Fellow at the European think-tank BRUEGEL and as a non-resident Senior Follow at the East Asian Institute (EAI) of the National University Singapore (NUS) and Adjunct Professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST). In addition, she is and an advisor to the Spanish government on economic affairs, a Member of the Board of the Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and a Member of the Council of the Focused Ultrasound Foundation (FUF). Among previous roles, she was Chief Economist for Emerging Markets at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), Member of the Asian Research Program at the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), Head of the International Economy Division of the Bank of Spain, Member of the Counsel to the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, Head of Emerging Economies at the Research Department at Banco Santander, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. In academia, she has previously served as visiting Professor at John Hopkins University (SAIS program), China-Europe International Business School (CEIBS) and Carlos III University. She holds a PhD in economics from George Washington University and has published extensively in reputable journals and books. She is very active in international media (such as BBC, Bloomberg, CNBC and CNN) as well as on social media.

Cost: NT$1,800 for members and NT$2,600 for members' guest(s) or NT$17,000 per table of ten persons for members guest(s)

*To cancel without penalty, written cancellations must be received 2 days prior to the event.

Contact: Fiona Lee
Tel: 2740-0236 ext. 216 / Fiona.lee@ecct.com.tw